SG Options Seller Masterclass

What is one trade actually worth to you?

Win rate on its own tells you almost nothing. Expectancy is the number that decides whether a strategy makes money: (win % × average win) − (loss % × average loss). Fill in the four figures from your own closed trades and read the answer.

Your four numbers

%
Count every closed trade, including the ones you would rather forget.
$
$
This is the figure almost nobody tracks, and it is the one that decides the answer.
$
Leave at zero if you want the gross figure. Real accounts are not gross.
—
Expectancy per trade, after costs

What that means over 100 trades

Expected total—
Money made by the winners—
Money handed back by the losers—
Paid in commission and fees—

Where your breakeven sits

Your win rate—
Win rate you need just to break even—
Reward-to-risk ratio (average win ÷ average loss)—
Average loss you could afford at your win rate—

This is arithmetic on figures you supply. It is not a projection, a backtest or a forecast, and it says nothing about whether any strategy suits you. Past results do not guarantee future results.

How to fill this in from your own export

1. Get the numbers

  • Win rate — winning closed trades ÷ all closed trades.
  • Average win — total profit of the winners ÷ number of winners.
  • Average loss — total loss of the losers ÷ number of losers.

2. Use at least 20 trades

  • Below about 20 closed trades these averages move wildly with a single outlier.
  • If you have fewer, fill it in anyway and note the sample size next to the answer.

3. Then change one thing

  • Cut the average loss by a quarter and watch the answer. That is what a defined-risk structure and a written exit rule are actually buying you.